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Climate finance already $97 bln per year - report

Tue, 08 Nov 2011 14:02:36 +0100

By Megan Rowling

LONDON (AlertNet) - At least $97 billion per year is being provided to support low-carbon, climate-resilient development, but the bulk is investment in mitigation projects like renewable energy, with only 5 percent going to help vulnerable countries adapt to climate change, according to a new report on climate finance.

The study - which maps the size and nature of climate finance flows, mainly using 2009-2010 figures - raises the question of whether the international community is already close to meeting the annual $100 billion it promised to mobilise by 2020 to assist developing nations in tackling climate change.

The pledge, made at the 2009 Copenhagen climate summit, is intended to be met with funding from private, public and "alternative" sources. But the report from the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI), an international research organisation, cautions against asserting that the rich world has nearly reached its goal well ahead of time "for multiple reasons".

These include the fact that a "significant share" of the current estimated flows of $97 billion is not new money but was already being provided before the Copenhagen accord. In addition, many countries have argued that the majority of the promised funding should come from the public sector, and should not include capital investment.

The financial flows identified in the report include both "incremental costs" - resources provided to cover the difference between a cheaper, more polluting option and a costlier, greener one - and "capital investment", which is tangible investment in mitigation or adaptation projects that needs to be paid back.

Most climate finance in 2009/2010 - $74-87 billion out of $97 billion - can be classified as investment, according to the report.

It notes that building a comprehensive picture of climate finance flows is essential to fulfilling the $100 billion commitment, which is a major issue in U.N. climate change negotiations.

"Understanding how much and what type of support is being made available to advance action on low-carbon, climate-resilient development, how these types of support correspond to countries' needs, and whether financial resources are being spent productively, is critical to building trust among countries and ensuring the effective use of the available financial resources," it says.

PRIVATE MONEY DWARFS PUBLIC

The study shows that that the amount of private climate finance is close to three times greater than public finance, at an average of $55 billion of the annual total. The public sector provides at least $21 billion, which is raised through carbon market revenues, carbon taxes and general tax revenues.

"The relatively small role of the public sector compared to the private sector is remarkable, in light of the debate in the global climate change negotiations where many have emphasised the need for developed countries to fund mitigation and adaptation in developing nations," the report says.

Equally noteworthy is the finding that just $4.4 billion out of $97 billion is going to efforts to help countries and communities adapt to the impacts of climate change, including more extreme weather and rising seas.

The huge share being channeled into mitigation activities - focused on limiting heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions - is mostly the result of large capital investments in measures like renewable energy, the report says.

It notes that the 95:5 split between mitigation and adaptation contrasts with some of the rhetoric in global negotiations, where many countries and commentators have said that climate finance should be allocated equally between the two types of response.

But it may make sense to invest in mitigation today, while climate change can still be curbed, and put more into adaptation later, the report says. "One could see our data as proof that the world is acting rationally now," it observes.

It adds that private investment is more likely to go into mitigation projects - for a which a business case can be made - rather than adaptation work, which is often a public good that requires public funding.

Other interesting findings include:

• Carbon finance plays only a small role at present, accounting for just $2 billion in 2009-2010, in contrast with initial high expectations for the amounts it would generate.

• Intermediary bodies, such as bilateral and multilateral financial institutions, play a key role in distributing climate finance, managing around 40 percent of the total.

• Dedicated climate funds channel a small but growing portion of finance - between $1.1 billion and $3.2 billion per year.

The report argues that fragmented and patchy information on climate finance is impeding a better understanding of what is needed to make it more effective. It calls for a common set of definitions to enable tracking and comparison of complex data.

"A comprehensive picture of climate finance flows is essential for the success of international climate policy," the report says, advocating for the development of a "comprehensive tracking system that ultimately helps countries learn how to spend money wisely".

01 Nov 2011 14:59

Source: alertnet // Megan Rowling

Ghanaian women want say in climate change discussions - paper

Tue, 01 Nov 2011 07:39:07 +0100

By George Fominyen

DAKAR (AlertNet) – Women living in rural communities are among people set to be hardest-hit by the impacts of climate change in Ghana, but their voices are not being heard during discussions to tackle the phenomenon, the Ghanaian Chronicle reported on Wednesday.

Women attending a climate justice forum in Ghana have urged the government to involve women in the design and implementation of climate change policies and programmes in the West African country, the paper said.

Experts say Ghana could face rising sea levels, coastal erosion, and unwieldy weather patterns leading to heavy rainfall and flooding and extended droughts in various parts of the country, due to the effects of climate change.

Rural women attending the forum spoke of the plight they have already faced during floods and droughts that have been hitting the country.

“The drought has led to loss of food crops and animal lives, which are basic for human survival,” said Memuna Sandow, from Wulugu in the West Mamprusi district in northern of Ghana, where a recent drought dried up water sources such as wells, streams and even some boreholes.

“Sometimes, women die in the performance of their productive role on the farm during flooding periods, because they cannot swim,” Sandow added.

A representative of Ghana’s Minister for Women and Children's Affairs said a gender analysis of budget lines and financial instruments for climate change is crucial to ensure gender-sensitive investments.

Cocoa industry must adapt to climate change - study

Fri, 07 Oct 2011 10:44:11 +0100

By George Fominyen, AlertNet

DAKAR (AlertNet) - Enjoying a bar of chocolate could become an expensive pleasure in years to come, say researchers who have been studying the impact of climate change on West Africa’s cocoa-growing regions.

Half of the world’s cocoa comes from the West African nations of Ivory Coast and Ghana. An expected temperature rise of more than two degrees Celsius by 2050 will render many of the region’s cocoa-producing areas too hot for the plants that bear the fruit from which chocolate is made, says a new study from the Colombia-based International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT).

“What we are saying is that if we don’t take any action, there won’t be sufficient chocolate around in the future,” said Peter Läderach, the report’s lead author.

The warmer conditions predicted by the researchers, based on 19 climate models, mean cocoa trees will struggle to get enough water during the growing season, curtailing the development of cocoa pods containing the prized cocoa bean - the key ingredient in chocolate production.

“The dry seasons will become more intense; it will get hotter and the plants will be affected,” Läderach told AlertNet on the phone from Nicaragua.

By 2050, a rise in temperature of 2.3 degrees Celsius will drastically affect production in lowland regions, including the major cocoa-producing areas of Moyen-Comoe, Sud-Comoe and Agneby in Ivory Coast, and Western and Brong Ahafo in Ghana, the report predicts.

Ideal cocoa-growing areas will shift to higher altitudes to compensate for the rise in temperatures. The search for new cocoa-producing sites could fuel the clearing of forests, protected areas and important habitats for flora and fauna, the report warns.

NEW VARIETIES, TECHNIQUES NEEDED

Cocoa farmers and exporters, the cocoa industry and consumers of products derived from cocoa will all feel the impact of these changes if action to adapt is not taken now, Läderach said.

Farmers are particularly vulnerable since cocoa production is often their primary source of income. They sell the pods to raise cash for basic services like school fees or medical expenses.

Läderach said plant scientists must breed new crop varieties adapted to the warmer conditions associated with climate change, and farmers should develop new crop management techniques to survive the coming climate shifts.

They could grow their cocoa plants under the shade of bigger forest trees, which would help keep them cool, for example.

“They would also need to have irrigation systems if places get too dry, and should consider alternative cash crops that could match the climatic conditions,” Läderach added.

The researchers hope the study, commissioned by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, will help decision makers, governments, farmers, exporters and cocoa businesses take steps to tackle the situation.

“Cocoa prices have been on the rise in the past year,” said Läderach. “If there is less cocoa available, they are going to continue to rise - which means the industry will have to make decisions that could cause chocolate prices to increase.”

Namibia: No Option but to Adapt to a Changing Climate

Thu, 25 Aug 2011 16:01:35 +0100

By Marianne Pretorius

WINDHOEK, Aug 15, 2011 (IPS) - Extreme weather conditions predicted because of climate change in Namibia are likely to have a tremendous effect on the 70 percent of the country’s people who live in rural areas and depend heavily on agriculture.

According to experts in climate change, Namibia has no option but to adapt to the changing climate as radical changes in weather, such as extreme dry spells and exceptionally heavy rainfall, are forecast for the southern African country.

The heavy rainfall has already started: this year’s flood levels in the Cuvelai Basin in north-central Namibia were eight centimetres higher than the 2009 flood season. This is a new record for the area where almost half of Namibia’s 2.1 million people live.

At least 21 school children were reported to have drowned since the beginning of the floods in early February. Extensive damage was also sustained on Namibia’s roads, buildings and other infrastructure, and thousands of people were displaced.

In a country where some of the biggest contributors to the national economy – namely agriculture, fisheries and eco-tourism – are dependent on natural resources, the ever-increasing change will require substantial adaptation.

If adaptation is not possible, poverty, a lack of income and employment opportunities will increase the vulnerability of households, says Ephraim Nekongo, the chairperson of the Oshana Regional Youth Forum.

Namibia already has unemployment figures of about 50 percent.

"The environmental consequences of climate change, both those already observed and those that are anticipated, such as (rising) sea levels, changes in precipitation resulting in flooding and drought, more intense hurricanes and storms, heat waves and degraded air quality, will both affect human health directly and indirectly," said Nekongo, speaking at the Namibia Climate Change Adaptation Youth Conference (NYCCC) on Jul. 29 to 30.

The country’s economy is directly reliant on the environment for up to 30 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP). This is according to experts and technical advisors of the Africa Adaptation Project (AAP), a United Nations Development Programme initiative supported by the Japanese government that assists 20 African countries in implementing adaptation actions and plans to deal with climate change.

Initial research has indicated that the impact climate change will have on natural resources could reduce Namibia’s GDP by up to six percent, about 30 million dollars, over the next 20 years.

As Namibia is a vulnerable country that contributes fairly little to greenhouse gasses (GHG), its first priority in climate change responsibility must be adaptation, says Namibia’s Minister of Environment and Tourism Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwa.

According to the technical advisor of AAP Namibia, Johnson Ndokosho, Africa is responsible for a mere three percent of GHGs in the atmosphere. North America and Western Europe combined are responsible for 75 percent and their total population is roughly the same as that of the whole of Africa.

"The government of Namibia is committed to developing its evidence base to take long-term actions for climate change adaptation and mitigation and has commissioned climate projection studies to learn more about climate change effects," says Nandi-Ndaitwa. She says that young Namibians are already taking the lead to build the country’s economy and focus, not only on the challenges, but also on the opportunities presented by climate change.

One of the projects that does this is the Urban Indigenous Poultry Project, funded by AAP.

Nelson Haulamba, a young farmer who is part of the project, says that the aim is to adapt to climate change, generate an income and offer a platform for those interested in agriculture. People involved with the project farm the Boschveld Chicken, a cross of three indigenous chicken breeds in Africa: the Venda, Matabele and Ovambo.

"It is the only synthetic indigenous chicken breed in Africa. It is a no-fuss breed that can survive harsh conditions," he says.

The Boschveld Chicken can allegedly survive on "what nature can provide". It therefore needs very little maintenance. They can also, according to Haulamba, withstand the varying climatic conditions of Africa and produce a good amount of eggs in free-range conditions.

Due to low rainfall, generally poor soil quality and high rates of evaporation, Namibia is better situated for livestock than crop production, says Haulamba.

"In order for Namibia to achieve food security in terms of poultry, we should use high quality breeds that can adapt to the different climatic conditions of Namibia."

The country is expected to face an absolute water scarcity, which is when the annual water supply drops below 500 cubic metres per person, in nine years.

"Decreased rainfall and increased evaporation can lead to a decrease in surface water and the recharging of groundwater. Already as it is, Namibia is projected to face absolute water scarcity by 2020. This is a situation where Namibians will need more water than the country can supply," says Ndokosho.

But the sea will flood some parts of the country within the next 100 years. According to Ndokosho, sea levels along the Namibian coastline may rise 30 to 100 cm within the next 100 years. This increase is projected to flood significant parts of Walvis Bay and other coastal towns.

Experts say the ability of African countries to build climate resilience into their national development plans will be a major factor in their efforts to achieve and sustain the Millennium Development Goals to reduce hunger and poverty, reduce the spread of contagious diseases, achieve environmental sustainability and increase levels of education.

Potential measures needed in order to adapt to climate change in Namibia include the protection of wetlands and the vegetation that grows at the mouth of streams and rivers.

"Wetlands are like sponges," says Ndokosho. "They absorb water, act as buffers against storms and are sources of fresh water."

He says that beaches and sandpits need to be replenished. According to him beach replenishment is important because it increases the size of the beach and reduces flooding on coastal developments.

Other risks, he says, can be overcome by initiatives to generate income and diversify livelihoods while creating learning platforms in both agriculture and climate change adaptation.

Investments in renewable energy sources will have to be made in order to adapt to a possible energy crisis. It is important to become less dependent on trees, Ndokosho adds.

Horn of Africa drought: Why is Somalia worst affected?

Thu, 14 Jul 2011 23:51:28 +0100

By Peter Biles BBC world affairs correspondent

Somalia is a failed state by anyone's reckoning, and while no-one is questioning the severity of the current tragedy, it is another matter assessing just how bad it is.

Gathering accurate and comprehensive information from inside Somalia has been a challenge for 20 years now. The country has been without a national government since the overthrow of President Mohamed Siad Barre in January 1991.

The latest drought in the Horn of Africa has thrown the region into even more chaos, and led to an unwelcome movement of Somalis into neighbouring Kenya and Ethiopia.

It is being called "the worst drought in north-east Africa for 60 years".

However, given the dramatic changes in the region in that time, the description is largely meaningless.

This is certainly one of the driest years in decades, but beyond that it is impossible to make comparisons about the impact on the population of the Horn.

For one thing, the population of some countries has more than doubled in the last 30-40 years.

According to World Bank figures, the population of Ethiopia in 1973 was 31 million. Today, it is in excess of 80 million.

The UN World Food Programme (WFP) says that changing weather patterns have made droughts more common in the region.

"Communities that used to have the relative luxury of several years of regular rainfall to recover from the occasional year of drought are now learning to live in an almost constant state of food insecurity due to a lack of water," said WFP head Josette Sheeran.

More often than not, though, conflict has been a contributing factor at times of hardship.

Fighting, food and famine

The 1973 famine in Ethiopia occurred against the background of a creeping coup against Emperor Haile Selassie.

The 1984 famine there came at the height of the war between the government of Col Mengistu Haile Mariam and Tigrayan rebels.

And the 1992 food crisis in Somalia occurred as the country was descending into anarchy.

This year, the food shortages in Somalia have been exacerbated by the lack of humanitarian access to many areas, and accompanied by a sharp increase in food prices.

However, the numbers in need of food assistance are not yet anywhere near the 1992 figures.

The UN says 10 million people are currently on the verge of starvation.

In 1992, prior to the US-led intervention in Somalia, the number of people needing help was reckoned to be more than 23 million.

So aid workers are trying to respond as best they can, without becoming bogged down in comparisons.

To contain the unfolding humanitarian situation in the camps in Kenya and Ethiopia, the United Nations and international aid agencies desperately need access to areas of Somalia where insecurity is rife and where the militant Islamist group, al-Shabab, is in control.

WFP says it withdrew from al-Shabab-controlled areas of southern Somalia at the beginning of 2010 because of threats to the lives of UN staff, and the imposition of unacceptable operating conditions, including the imposition of informal taxes and a demand that no female staff work there for the WFP.

Now though, the organisations which have found it difficult, if not impossible, to operate in areas held by al-Shabab, are looking at the possibility of returning to southern Somalia.

Islamist concessions

The insurgents have said that local and international aid agencies will be allowed to assist people affected by the drought.

The latest arrangements have still to be put to the test.

Somalis fleeing to Kenya report that militants at checkpoints have tried to stop people leaving

"Al-Shabab may be on the back foot in places," says one regional analyst.

Somalis fleeing to Kenya report that militants at checkpoints have tried to stop people leaving, but people are fleeing across the desert nonetheless.

The view from Ethiopia, one of the powerbrokers in the Horn of Africa, is that al-Shabab is desperate to use the drought as a means of regaining lost popularity and trust among local communities.

Both the US and UK describe al-Shabab, which has links to al-Qaeda, as a terrorist group.

It has fought Somalia's weak UN-backed Government and the African Union's peacekeepers since 2007.

Al-Shabab is thought to control much of southern Somalia, including the key Afgooi corridor that links the countryside in the south to the capital, Mogadishu.

It is reckoned to be stronger in the agricultural areas between the Juba and Shebelle Rivers, whereas the local clans tend to hold sway in the pastoral areas. The government claims to exercise authority in the far south, near the Kenyan border.

No soft landing

The insecurity, compounded by the drought, has led to migration in all directions in the region.

Uncharacteristically, Somalis have been streaming into camps set up in war-ravaged Mogadishu. Traditionally, city residents have taken refuge in the countryside when fighting in the capital has intensified.

Some people have been heading north to the semi-autonomous region of Puntland. Others, of course, have been crossing into Kenya and Ethiopia.

It is also thought likely that people affected by drought in the Somali region of eastern Ethiopia have headed south into Kenya.

For those on the move, there is no soft landing anywhere.

North-eastern Kenya is an impoverished part of the country, historically neglected by government in Nairobi.

Much the same can be said about Ethiopia's attitude towards its Somali Region.

The third option, being internally displaced within Somalia, holds even greater risks for those who are vulnerable.

The late President Barre would scarcely recognise the country he ruled for more than 20 years, with perhaps one exception. Drought is still a recurring feature of life in the Horn.

Personal tales: A climate-changer?

Mon, 02 May 2011 12:53:29 +0100

by Richard Black | 00:01 UK time, Sunday, 1 May 2011

Even before the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) made its much-discussed error in glacier melting dates, the question of how climate change impacts were being felt across the Himalayas was something of a hot topic.

One of the problems back then, which remains a problem now, is simply lack of data.

Getting into some of the regions is time-consuming and arduous. Satellites give an incomplete picture - and only since the early 1980s, at that.

Nevertheless, it's a hugely important issue given the vast number of people who depend on Himalayan glaciers to store their drinking water and release it in a steady, controlled fashion during the year.

The journal Biology Letters this week reports a novel yet kind of obvious way to tackle the data dearth; simply asking Himalayan villagers about their experiences.

To be fair, the phrase "simply asking" does the researchers a disservice, because what they emphasise throughout their paper is the need to gather local knowledge "rapidly and efficiently... using systematic tools".

It has to be structured, internally consistent and rigorous; that's the message.

This particular project involved villages in the Darjeeling Hills in the north-east of India and in Ilam District just across the border in Nepal.

Researchers went to 28 villages in total, and did 250 face-to-face interviews as well as a number of focus group exercises.

Their top line conclusions are that villagers are noticing signals suggestive of climate change.

Warmer weather, drying water sources, the advance of summer and the monsoon, new insect pests, earlier flowering of plants... all consistent with the basic idea of a warming world.

The sample size was big enough that researchers - Pashupati Chaudhary and Kamal Bawa from the University of Massachusetts in Boston, US - could note different perceptions at different altitudes.

Dr Bawa is also president of the Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment, based in Bangalore, India - and the trust is keen to see more of this type of research.

Glaciers play a key role in regulating water supply in the Himalayas and for people outside the immediate region

The conclusions themselves are less intriguing, I think, than the idea that this kind of research could play a much larger role than it has done up to now in building a picture of how climate is changing - and not just in the Himalayas.

Report after report bemoans the lack of instrumental data across Africa - but more than any other continent, African lives are lived close to the land, which is exactly the situation in which you'd expect people to build up the most detailed and accurate internal pictures.

I had a quick chat with Martin Parry, who co-chaired the working group on climate impacts, adaptation and vulnerability for the 2007 IPCC assessment.

Now a visiting professor at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change Research in London, he told me there definitely is a role for evidence gathered through word-of-mouth.

"We need to expand the information we can collect on the evidence of climate change occurring now, which the last IPCC report kicked off and the next one is no doubt going to grow greatly - because it's ground-truthing, it's not model-based future stuff.

"But also the gaps in the knowledge are so big, and filling them in by going out and asking people is going to be increasingly the way to go.

"It's about less formal ways of collecting data. It takes time to set up monitoring stations and get 10 years of data, but if we can get into peoples' memories... I guess the one concern is the drift that occurs in peoples' memories, and how do you account for that?"

This is indeed going to be an issue - you can almost hear the objection forming in the minds of researchers around the world who are more used to dealing with the hard numbers churned out by thermometers, mass spectrometers and satellite-based radar.

How can you trust people's recollections?

And even if it gives you some qualitative indication of how things are changing, can this kind of research ever be quantitative, as instruments are?

This could be a good way of gathering data in Africa too

The Himalayan work threw up questions as well as answers.

For example, in some villages about half of the people questioned reported that summer was now starting earlier than 10 years ago; which raises the question of why the other half did not.

In villages where life is based almost totally on farming, you might expect a more consistent view.

In one sense, that is like putting two thermometers in the same place and finding that one registered a temperature rise while the other did not.

If that happened in practice, you would need to have experts in thermometers on hand to interpret the divergent readings - and perhaps there's a parallel need for expertise in interpreting the apparently conflicting recollections of different villagers.

As Professor Parry pointed out, help may come from other disciplines. Social anthropologists (and indeed other social scientists) depend on people data for much of their work, and may already have protocols that can be adapted for climate-based questionnaires.

Medicine, too, has its share of structured questionnaires. For example, heart failure can be assessed through people's evaluation of their own symptoms - to what degree are they out of breath when climbing stairs, for example - and there are myriad indices for pain and quality of life.

One of the recommendations coming out of recent inquiries into climate science (as pertaining to the IPCC and the University of East Anglia) is that researchers could and should make more use of specialist statisticians.

And perhaps the increasing use of orally-gathered evidence will require the systematic and rigorous involvement of social scientists in order to ensure best practice is followed.

But there surely is going to be more data of this kind used in climate circles in future.

It's cheap, is available in many regions with poor instrumental coverage, it can span large timeframes, and data can be gathered simultaneously on what communities are experiencing and how they're coping.

What's not to like, provided the cautions are heeded?

China and EU share climate vision

Sat, 26 Mar 2011 16:16:30 +0100

China and the European Union are setting out plans for changing energy use and curbing carbon emissions within a space of a few days.

As one of them is the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases while the other would be third in the global list if its emissions were tallied as a single entity, what they come up with is obviously of some importance in shaping the world of the future.

The contexts of the two announcements are somewhat different.

In Beijing on Saturday, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao unveiled his report to the National People's Congress, the Chinese parliament.

In part he assessed progress on various measures over the last five years, and in part he outlined targets and aspirations for the five years ahead.

(Time has posted English translations of the various documents that are downloadable and searchable.)

Regarding energy and climate, one target is to generate 11.4% of energy from renewable sources by 2015 - up from 8% in 2010.

Energy will be used more efficiently - about 16% more efficiently, on the same timescale.

But by targeting economic growth just slightly lower than it's seen over the last decade, the Five-Year Plan also guarantees that energy use overall will still rise.

The size of the targets probably shouldn't come as a surprise given that back in 2009, before the Copenhagen climate summit, China vowed to improve carbon intensity by 40-45% between 2005 and 2020, and to produce 15% of energy renewably by 2020.

European energy and climate policy is proving a difficult balancing act

The Five-Year Plan targets are logical steps on the road.

Back in Europe, the European Commission will on Tuesday unveil its energy and climate "roadmap" to 2050.

This doesn't carry the weight of formal policy, because everything has to be signed off by member states.

But because member states engage actively in lobbying and pressurising during the process of drawing up documents such as the roadmap, you can be fairly sure that what emerges won't be a million miles away from where nations will eventually converge.

As I outlined on Friday, the commission is set to stick explicitly to its existing target of a 20% cut in emissions from 1990 levels by 2020 - ignoring lobbying from green groups who cite scientific studies to argue that after the recession, going for 20% is less ambitious than "business as usual".

To them, the debate should be between 30% and 40%.

There's clearly been a row going on behind the scenes between Connie Hedegaard's Climate Directorate and its Energy counterpart headed by Gunther Oettinger; and as of Friday, Mr Oettinger appeared to have emerged victorious.

Nevertheless, there is at least a sense of the EU moving forward here - like China, driven partly by concern over climate change, partly by growing awareness of the insecurity of depending on fossil fuels, and partly by studies suggesting that a "green energy revolution" is positive for jobs and employment.

In terms of what it means internationally, there's an intriguing phrase in the draft commission report leaked a couple of weeks ago:

"Quite a number of the EU's key partners from around the world, like China, Brazil and Korea, are addressing these issues..."

Given that the country traditionally closest to the EU on things political is the US, its absence from the list is telling in a couple of different ways.

Firstly, it's another indicator that the US is not really moving forwards anything like as quickly as China and the EU on green energy and climate issues.

As Time's Bryan Walsh put it:

"At least they have a plan.

"What do we have in the US? On Wednesday, Republican Representative Michele Bachmann reintroduced her Light Bulb Freedom of Choice Act."

This seeks to repeal the 2007 Congress decision (made under the presidency of George W Bush) that from next year, only energy-efficient lightbulbs could be sold in the US.

The shortage of alternative fuels for aviation means curbs will probably end up being tougher elsewhere

As I wrote a couple of weeks ago, the US direction of travel on climate and energy is putting it out of kilter with most other countries in the world.

Whether that matters for the US - and whether its basic premise is correct - are questions on which you'll have different views.

But it certainly has implications.

For example; if the Senate had passed climate legislation that included a cap-and-trade system, there's every prospect that the talk now would be of how carbon trading in the US could link up with the European carbon market.

That prospect is apparently dead; and the most likely link-ups, that are even now being explored, involve Japan and China.

The second way in which the "partners... like China, Brazil and Korea" phrase becomes important is over international moves to curb carbon emissions, and the notion - raised in that previous post of mine - that the rest of the world might not be as willing to wait for the US as it was in the run-up to the Copenhagen summit.

Partnerships come in many guises; and there is a school of thought that says only now are European politicians understanding how to work with China, which is culturally so much more distant than North America.

China's political process means that policies are largely decided centrally, at five-year intervals, after long discussions with interested parties inside the country.

So perhaps there's no point in coming to an event such as the Copenhagen summit and expecting to negotiate on emission curbs, given that they tie so closely into economic policy.

Perhaps instead the logical path should be to take the pledges that China makes (and other countries too) - and, accepting that they amount to targets that the government is totally serious about meeting, regard them as being equal to the internationally-binding targets that have been the traditional stock-in-trade of the UN climate process.

We're due to see a more detailed and nuanced discussion of this idea emerge in a few weeks' time, so I'll leave it at that for now.

In the meantime, we'll report on the European Commission's final document when it emerges on Tuesday afternoon, and wait to see what else emerges from the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

What sort of lightbulbs are in use there one can only guess...

By Richard Black

A collection of post-Cancun Analyses

Sat, 05 Mar 2011 15:24:05 +0100

By Miquel Munoz

It has been twelve weeks since the conclusion of the UN Climate Change Conference in Cancún. There were mixed feelings on the Cancún outcome. While many felt that, in substantive terms, not much was achieved, the agreement was also perceived as process-saving, especially when compared with the Copenhagen debacle a year earlier, and thus the closing session in Cancún met with thunderous applause.

Official climate change negotiations will resume in Bangkok, Thailand in early April. There, work will continue for the working groups on Long-term Cooperative Action (AWG-LCA 14) and on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP 16). The agenda includes, among others, issues such as a global goal for emission reductions and global peaking, adaptation, MRV for developed and developing countries, the registry, forests financing, technology, capacity building and market/non-market mechanisms. The Bangkok meeting will be the first in preparation for the next UN Climate Change Conference (COP 17), to take place in Durban, South Africa, November 28 –December 9, 2011. As such, no particular outcome is expected, other than progress towards an eventual deal in Durban (or beyond).

Since Cancún, many experts have published their analyses, commentaries and other resources on that conference. These range from descriptions of the Cancún meeting and analysis of its agreements, to the implications for a wide array of issues, from climate-specific such as REDD, finance, technology and adaptation, to wider-reaching and longer term issues such as trade, security, human rights, migration, Rio+20, ethics, and the future of the UN and multilateralism. For those interested in those analyses and commentaries of the Cancun negotiations and implications see this collection of such resources.

Incremental Progress in Cancun

Sat, 05 Mar 2011 15:18:45 +0100

By Harald Winkler

The Cancún Agreements did not resolve the big questions of climate change. The future of the Kyoto Protocol was left uncertain. With a second commitment period ruled out “under any conditions” by Japan (and supported by Russia), the next option would have been a mandate – to launch negotiations for a new treaty. The small islanders proposed exactly that, with support from the EU and several others (including SA) – but none of the US, India and China were ready to make that move. With a comprehensive agreement out of reach, why was there a mood of euphoria in the final plenary?

Well, partly it was sheer relief. After the failure of last year’s negotiations in Copenhagen, the rather modest step forward achieved in Cancún in 2010 was greeted by most governments enthusiastically. They point to the establishment of new institutions – an Adaptation Committee, a Technology Mechanism and the Green Climate Fund.

The gains made, however, represent incremental progress. Where advances are made, they were on technical issues. Technical issues are important, and can lay a solid basis for action at the national and local levels. But even in this regard, gains were partial, with many matters either put into work programmes or deferred to the next meeting in Durban in December 2011.

From a developing country perspective, there was much conceded. With Kyoto in intensive care, the mandate for a two-track approach is significantly weakened. Instead of firm commitments to reduce emssions in developed countries, the Cancún Agreements only “take note” of targets. Even the weak pledges made are reflected in a treaty, but as “information”. Meanwhile, the system of measuring, reporting and verifying actions by developing countries is being strengthened. Not least, Cancún decided on “international consultation and analysis” – a multi-lateral process that is aimed at ensuring transparency.

Why did developing countries accept these compromises. The US came to Cancún offering “finance for transparency”, and pretty much got that deal. The lure of “fast-start funding” of $30 billion up to 2012 was in the Copenhagen Accord. Now, the money is put into the Green Climate Fund. From early on, Mexican President Calderon had put his support behind a fund. No significant progress was made on scaling up funding to the $100 billion per year in 2020. Despite input in the form of a report by the UN Secretary General’s Advisory Group on Finance, the issue remains where the money will come from – public or private sources. And a conditionality is put in the decision on such funding, that it depends on “meaningful mitigation action and transparency in implementation” by developing countries. At least it should become possible to track funding – a process to enhance reporting on finance by developed countries in their national communications should allow clearer information whether the finance has been delivered – at least across public sources.

The Adaptation Committee could also become an important institution. Adaptation has been dealt with in a fragmented fashion previously. Now there is a committee, to oversee the Cancun Adaptation Framework. But, on has to add, the implementation still needing to be filled in – and the funding secured. Balance of funding between adaptation and mitigation is agreed in the short-term, but not in the long-term. Given that many major players do not see adaptation as part of the core deal, the future of adaptation and its funding remains an areas of concern.

On technology, too, a Mechanism. This includes a Technology Executive Committee

and a Climate Technology Centre and Network. The functions of the institution to promote technology development and transfer advanced reasonly far. Thorny issues such as intellectual property rights remain, but there seems to be some willingness to enhance cooperation.

Overall, the Cancún agreements are firmly in the realm of incremental progress. The approach is definitely not that of treaties which set clear targets and time-tables. Rather, it is pledge and review.

Will the Cancún Agreements solve the climate problem? Clearly not, certainly not on their own, and without significant further work. The gap between what is politically feasible and what is required by science remains huge. The UNEP report on the emissions gap (see earlier post) made this abundantly clear.

The agreements effectively acknowledge this, by agreeing that a review of adequacy must be conducted from 2013 to 2015. Governments know that what they can agree is not enough. The best, for now, is to agree to look at it again later and to strengthen commitments. Meanwhile, for every extra year spent talking, the gap gets bigger. And the challenge gets greater.

See http://ercatcop16.wordpress.com/2010/12/14/incremental-progress/

Tanzania: War on Climate Change Gets Boosts

Tue, 16 Nov 2010 15:16:14 +0100

By Lucas Liganga

9 November 2010

Tanzania, like other countries in the world, is already a victim of the impact of climate change. This is unfolding at a devastating and unprecedented rate, and indeed the impact is already vivid.

For example, Africa's rooftop, Mount Kilimanjaro, has lost 80 per cent of its glacier cover since 1912. Further, surveys indicate that the prevalence of malaria, a climate related disease, has been reported in high altitude areas like Mbeya Region. This is strange because the killer disease was not commonly found in the region.

Spring wells that are sources of fresh groundwater water in some parts of Bagamoyo, Coast Region, have been abandoned because of rising sea water levels.

In the north eastern shores of the Indian Ocean of Pangani District, Tanga Region, an island called Maziwe has been submerged. Many lake basins that form important components of the ecosystem have also been affected by the adverse impact of climate change. Water levels of lakes Tanganyika, Jipe, Manyara and Victoria have been reported to drop in recent years as a manifestation of climate change.

Reports also indicate that Lake Rukwa has receded for about seven kilometers in the past 50 years while the water level of Lake Victoria dropped by about 2.57 metres between 1965 and 2006. As over 60 per cent of the land mass of Tanzania is prone to desertification, water resources are becoming scarce as frequent droughts have a serious impact on water catchment areas and other ecosystems.

These impact of climate change has far reaching implications to the livelihood of Tanzanians, plus the country's social and economic development. The impact list of climate change in Tanzania is long and worrying--thanks to the Global Climate Change Alliance (GCCA). This is an initiative launched in 2007 by the European Commission to enhance dialogue and cooperation on climate change between the EU and poor developing countries most vulnerable to climate change.

In particular these are the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS). The countries are hardest hit by the adverse effects of climate change while they have the least capacity to react and adapt to the climate impact.

The GCCA is an EU initiative aiming to help poor developing countries most vulnerable to climate change. The assistance enhances their ability to adapt to the effects of climate change in support of the achievements made in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

Through the initiative, the EU has allocated Tanzania Euro 2.2million (Sh4.4billion) for the new financing mechanism--GCCA. This is geared to address climate change challenges at local community levels.

Tanzania has been selected among the first four pilot countries to benefit from the new financing mechanism. Other beneficiaries are Cambodia, Vanuatu and Maldives. The EU's total contribution of the GCCA is Euro 140 million. The EU Delegation in Tanzania has developed a project in order to increase the most vulnerable Tanzanian communities' capacity to adapt to the adverse effects of climate change.

It has done so in close collaboration with the Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs as well as the division of environment in the Vice-President's Office. This is through the implementation of sustainable, innovative and community-driven initiatives.

In 2007, the European Commission delivered a communication to the Council and the European Parliament on the necessity to build a GCCA between the EU and poor developing countries most vulnerable to climate change.

The communication stated that: "The European Union has taken a leadership role in promoting international action to tackle climate change. In March 2007 EU heads of state and government put forward proposals for a global and comprehensive post-2012 climate change agreement to limit global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and committing to significant cuts in the EU's GHG emissions. This was even in the absence of an international agreement.

The EU, as the largest provider of Official Development Assistance (ODA), has also taken a leading role in international development efforts. This is reflected in the "European Consensus", in ambitious ODA commitments and in the promotion of aid effectiveness and coherence.

Although the EU already highlighted the strong links between climate change and poverty in 2003, the urgency and magnitude of the challenge call for a more collective initiative to match Europe's responsibility and commitment in the fight against poverty.

The GCCA has two main objectives of deepening the policy dialogue between the EU and developing countries on climate change. This is especially in the context of the international negotiations for a post-2012 climate regime.

The other is stepping up support to target countries to implement priority adaptation and mitigation measures. Also it integrates climate change issues into their development strategies.

The GCCA acts as a platform for dialogue and exchange of experiences between the EU and partner developing countries on climate policy and on practical approaches to realizing the integration of climate change into development strategies. Results of the dialogue and exchange feed into discussions on the post-2012 climate agreement under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Among main activities carried out by the GCCA are financial agreements with beneficiary countries, regional dialogue events to deepen cooperation on climate change and technical assistance, such as project development and capacity building activities.

Speaking during the launch of the GCCA at Movenpick Royal Palm Hotel in Dar es Salaam last week, the head of the EU Delegation in Tanzania, Mr Tim Clarke said: "Strong action against climate change is more urgent than ever before."

He explained: "This project, the first in the world, demonstrates the strong commitment of the EU and Tanzania to work together to address this vital issue through empowering local communities to improve their resilience and capacity to respond to climate change."

Ambassador Clarke further said that Tanzania has already witnessed dramatic potential negative impacts of climate change on peoples' lives, drought in the northern highlands, floods and landslides in Kilimanjaro Region

It has also witnessed the rising sea level in coastal regions, and increase in malaria prevalence in the southern highlands. "It is in our interest to raise awareness of this issue and promote innovative adaptation and mitigation activities," said the EU envoy.

Launching the new climate change financing mechanism, the minister of State in the Vice-President's Office (Environment), Dr Batilda Burian, said the impact of climate change to Tanzania is unfolding at devastating and unprecedented rates.

"Climate change is a worldwide threat that is already being felt everywhere but more intense among poor communities in Africa," she said in her address read on her behalf by Mr Richard Muyungi, the assistant director for environment in the VPO.

A senior economist with the Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs, Mr Sadick Magwaya, said the ministry would work closely with other stakeholders to ensure successful implementation of the GCCA.